How to live to 100

Well according to to the internet (which is the greatest source of reliable information, doh) the chance of living to 100 is somewhere around 30%.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/living-to-100-its-more-likely-than-it-sounds-2013-11-22

GREAT! Bring me an other beer and let’s watch an other movie. Or we should invest in stocks, bonds and longevity insurance as the article suggest.

It’s all good, many sites confirm the good feature:

http://discovertheodds.com/what-are-the-odds-of-living-to-100/

https://www.caring.com/articles/10-clues-you-will-live-to-100

Don’t forget you’ll need to pay for this … has put together a comprehensive guide to planning for retirement at different ages.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-2028881/What-YOUR-chances-living-100-able-afford-it.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/historic-and-projected-data-from-the-period-and-cohort-life-tables/2012-based/sty-babies-living-to-100.html

This sound too good to be true .. that’s because it isn’t!
If the chance of living to 100 is 30% hen we should be surrounded by 100 years old centenarians …

But as you see here:

Centenarians to the total population:

Country
Centenarian Share of the Total Population
Japan 3.43 per 10,000
France 2.70 per 10,000
United Kingdom 1.95 per 10,000
Sweden 1.92 per 10,000
United States 1.73 per 10,000

There are 0.173 centenarians in 1000 people and 0.017 in 100 people alive.  Where are the missing 30%? Well … dead, because the 30% is an estimation, a future projection.

If you are born TODAY you would have a 30% chance to reach 100, and if you where born 20 years ago you would have a 20% chance of living to 100.

chance of living to 100
chance of living to 100

If you are born 50 years ago you have a 14% chance and if you are born  60 years ago you have a 12%, 70 years ago a 9% chance … and 100 years ago a 0.3% if you are male and 1.2 if you are a woman according to http://discovertheodds.com/what-are-the-odds-of-living-to-100/.

Everything is good in fairy-tale land, except we are living in the real world. All the estimations are based on the fact that currently (medium) life expectancy is increasing one year for every 4 years which pass.

BUT this increase in life expectancy is not reflected in a increase in the MAXIMUM life span!!! it result mostly from death curve rectangularization.

death curve rectangularization.
death curve rectangularization.

The problem is that a perfect curve rectangularization it’s a improbable physically realization concept and maximum lifespan does not really increase so much to support the new predicted life expectancy. Look even in this internet graph the area between 85 and 100 years is erased because if DOES NOT INCREASE.

Although the shape of the survivorship curve has become somewhat more rectangular (less diagonal) through time, it appears that very little additional rectangularization will occur because survival rates are already so high at the young ages and are expected to continue increasing at older ages. The so-called “curve squaring” concept, though appealing to many, simply cannot be supported by the mathematics of mortality. The age at which the survivorship curve comes close to zero.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/as116/as116_V.html

That leaves us with one remaining issue – the maximum lifespan. This statistic really hasn’t changed very much in the last 50 years – the oldest-living humans in 1960 were between 110 and 115; that’s how old the record-holders are today. Only a handful of people have, to our knowledge, ever lived longer.

http://johnhawks.net/weblog/reviews/life_history/age-specific-mortality-lifespan-bad-science-2009.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldest_people

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_living_centenarians

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people

Not everybody is as positive media and insurance companies:

Very few people become centenarians, making it to the old age of 100 years. As you pass 80 and 90 years of age your past and current lifestyle choices start to diminish in significance, while genetic variations gain a growing influence on your survival as an increasingly damaged and frail individual. At age 90 something like 75% of your age-matched peers are dead, and that includes a majority of everyone who made the best choices throughout life in health and lifestyle.

https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2014/08/without-new-medical-technologies-your-odds-of-living-to-100-are-extremely-poor.php

Everyone alive will be long dead before a life expectancy of 100 years will be achieved — if ever,” he says.

http://www.webmd.com/healthy-aging/news/20010218/human-life-expectancy-nearing-limits

 

us population by age
us population by age

http://www.indexmundi.com/world/age_structure.html

In developed countries, the number of centenarians is increasing at approximately 5.5% per year, which means doubling the centenarian population every 13 years, pushing it from some 455,000 in 2009 to 4.1 million in 2050

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy#Life_expectancy_vs._life_span

Which will  mean a 4x-7x increase in 100 ears but this will mean 7-8% will ‘become’ a centenarian in 100 years.

 

Studies find that many people in the 55-75 range can postpone morbidity by practicing healthy life styles. These discourses take part in a general idea of successful ageing. However, at about age 80, all people experience similar morbidity. Even with healthy life styles, most 85+ people will undergo extended “frailty and disability.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_age#Old_age_from_a_middle-age_perspective

In conclusion in a ideal world the chances could become 1 in 3, but in the real world, taking in consideration that the life expectancy increased mostly because of lower child mortality and antibiotic discovery (less deaths from infections), with out some new medical discoveries which will cure cancer and cardiovascular diseases, the MAXIMUM life expectancy will not increase as expected and will remain the same as now: meaning the chance of living to 100 is around 1 in 100 people.

As for 2016 just look at the age of death:

The fact that Ozzy is still alive is just as remarkable as Keith Richards..both not on this list btw

e fact that Ozzy is still alive is just as remarkable as Keith Richards..both not on this list btw
Aging Musicians alive in 2016

The fact that Ozzy is still alive is just as remarkable as Keith Richards..both not on this list btw

https://www.facebook.com/michael.rose.5011/posts/1013191295407030

According to the study, only 0.1 percent of Europeans live past the age of 90.
However, on an island off the coast of Greece called Ikaria, the number of people living past the age of 89 is 10 times higher than the rest of the European population

http://www.greece-trip.com/blog/greek-coffee-may-be-the-secret-to-a-longer-life/

https://www.facebook.com/michael.rose.5011/posts/1031965153529644?ref=notif&notif_t=notify_me

Reese Jones Population average age of death isn’t the same as maximum age possible for an individual. Fewer infants, children, young adults dying can explain this data (but not their incorrect exponential data forecast). Odds of living beyond 123 remains about 1/7billion and odds of living older than 115 years remains about 1/1billion — evidence of changes in this 120year maximum life expectancy for a human hasn’t been demonstrated. Other species have maximums that are much longer, proof that maximum life expectancy isn’t simple “wear&tear” & more likely maximum individual life expectancy in a species is likely coded genetically.

Read also:
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/health/life_expectancy/new-zealand-life-tables-2005-07/chapter-2-national-trends-in-longevity-and-mortality.aspx

Of Fossil Fuels and Human Destiny

Even if you survive you will not look too good
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/06/23/just-two-people-still-alive-who-were-born—1800s/29151569/

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